Potential transport demand estimation for Trieste-Rijeka direct passenger train

Building on discussions held during a public event at the CEI headquarters on 26 June 2023, professors Raffaele Pesenti, Andrea Stocchetti and Pietro Lanzini from the Ca’ Foscari University, faced several challenges in the estimation of the potential transport demand for this specific train service. These included a lack of historical data which hindered the use of statistical models for forecasting and fragmented data such as estimates, forecasts, and surveys from previous studies.

The study allowed the setting up of multiple scenarios, resulting in a range of annual demand estimates for a direct Trieste-Rijeka train service, with the most probable range falling between 28.400 and 36.000 passengers per year. However, it’s important to note that due to the current absence of a direct train service along this route, the launch of the service could itself generate additional demand.

Based on current tariffs and the most likely forecasts, the service was projected to generate an initial annual turnover ranging from 386.000 to 489.000 EUR.

The study revealed that while challenges exist in forecasting demand, the findings suggest a strong case for enhancing connectivity between these two cities and the broader Trieste – Ljubljana – Zagreb – Rijeka quadrilateral. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of integrated services and improvements in last-mile connectivity to maximise the benefits of such a rail link.